8 Comments

Great explanation of your point of view, very illustrative. Thanks for the writing.

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I can relate to your story on Meta with my investment in Kaspi, where I was a buyer all the way to July 2022. The political situation in 2022 in and around Kazakhstan hammered the valuation.

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Yeah I've been following Kaspi aswell. No position. It has been crazy volatile. It went to a ridiculous valuation and earnings growth plus a small amount of buybacks did the work.

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uncertainties around politics and large growth is a good cocktail for volatility

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for me its more valuation based. If its like giving you a 20% stable earnings yield, even if the business is ugly and boring, that's a fat pitch.

15% is also a fat pitch

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If it's been at 15-20% earnings yield for a long-time. Probably capital allocation is really bad. Else they would close the discount buying back shares

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Well in many cultures there is low dividend tax rate and no witholding tax so with a high dividend, the investor is supposed to do his own buyback by reinvesting the dividend. Not perfect, but I take that.

Buying back also does not close discounts.

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Buying back does close the discount IMO. If you can retire 15% of shares per year. It compounds. And eventually the market will have to give you a higher multiple. That's why the USA market has a higher multiple than markets that do zero buybacks. Just my opinion. Not buying back at low multiples is bad capital allocation

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